The coffee industry is growing in value. Prices in October 2021 reached all-time highs. Buying coffee has never been more important than right now. Especially taking into consideration the pandemic.
The worldwide coffee industry has suffered setbacks as a result of Covid-19. Which has slowed both production and buying coffee. While also upsetting the global supply chain. Global export volumes are lower in 2021 than in 2020. It has also witnessed the emergence of new trends.
Here’s a rundown of the major trends that will take over the coffee industry in 2022 and beyond.
Global coffee market overview – 2022 and beyond
Coffee is a multibillion-dollar sector as we all know. And it’s expected to thrive, despite slowdowns in other sections of the export market. According to Mordor Intelligence, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2020-2025 is 4.22%. With Europe being the largest consumer market and South America being the fastest-growing.
Coffee, however, could hardly be expected to avoid a worldwide pandemic. And how could it? The pandemic had a major impact on the sector, disrupting supply networks and wiping out previous standards. Things aren’t looking good. However, this will obviously not stop people from enjoying their precious coffee time.
According to a report from the ICO, worldwide output was down 2.2% from the previous year. With Arabica down by 5%. This is combined with a 0.5% predicted drop in buying coffee. Resulting in below-average pricing.
The ICO recorded 40.98 million bags of Robusta exports in the previous 12 months as of September 2021. Compared to 42.62 million bags the year before. Arabica, on the other hand, has improved somewhat from 72.22 million bags last year to 75.32 million bags this year.
The coffee market in the United States
The market is worth $14 billion dollars.
Coffee income has mostly flattened in the US, due to a weakness in downstream demand. And delays in the supply chain (i.e. trade shipments). It also isn’t projected to expand again until after the epidemic. To be fair to the United States, this is a global phenomenon that isn’t exclusive to the Americas. Revenue fell 17.9% in 2020 compared to 2019 but is predicted to rise at an annual rate of 8.7% through 2025. In 2020, the US coffee production market fell by 0.6%.
The coffee market in the United Kingdom
The market is worth US$1.2 billion.
Despite the fact that the UK only accounts for a minor percentage of the global coffee market, Europe is the global powerhouse. Compared to the likes of Finland, where consumers drink about four times as much coffee as the UK. In 2020, social distancing measures had a significant influence on the sector. Notably at the cafe and coffee shop level, resulting in a 1.3% drop in market size and a 15.7% drop in revenue. Experts anticipate that the UK coffee industry would develop at a faster rate than the US. With a CAGR of 10.5% over the next five years.
The coffee market in Australia
Market capitalization: $US7.8 billion*
Despite its British tea-drinking roots, Australia is a massive coffee-drinking nation. When compared to countries like the United States, its market size is enormous. Covid-19, of course, has had an influence here as well. In 2020, revenue was down 18.9%, and average revenue per person was down a comparable amount. Looking ahead to 2025, a CAGR of 8.6% is predicted.
The coffee market in New Zealand
New Zealand, like Australia, is a coffee-drinking nation.
In fact, NZ’s average coffee consumption per capita is greater than both Australia and the United Kingdom. Revenue declines have been slower here as well. Owing to the country’s lockdown measures. Which have allowed consumer-facing enterprises and supply chain partners to return to normal faster. Revenue decreased by 15.8% in 2020, and the market is predicted to expand at a CAGR of 9.1% through 2025.
China’s coffee industry
Buying coffee per capita in China is very low.
At 0.06kg per person, compared to 2.1kg in New Zealand and 3.5kg in the United States. Despite all this, the Chinese market is able to generate billions of dollars. Of course, like with everything else, numbers were down in 2020 compared to 2019. Revenue fell 18.7% but is predicted to climb at a CAGR of 11.6% by 2025.
Covid-19’s impact on coffee-exporting nations
So far, we’ve largely concentrated on coffee importers. Though certain countries, like Australia, do have their own developing coffee export sector. But what about the world’s greatest coffee growers?
Organizations at any step in the global coffee supply chain would benefit from knowing what’s going on at the origin of their product. In order to forecast how the following fiscal year – and beyond – will turn out.
The top coffee exporters in the world are:
Coffee exporters’ trends
Coffee prices have been erratic after a shock in both buying coffee and supply. According to ICO reports, they declined gradually from March to June 2020. This compounded the problem of low worldwide coffee prices. Which have been affecting producers for some years.
However, the ICO recorded record pricing in November 2021. Because of rising freight and labour expenses, the ICO composite price index reached 195 US cents per pound.
The majority of farmers (75%) informed the ICO that they expect travel restrictions. And social distancing measures (among other Covid-19 effects) to hinder their capacity to hire personnel. Resulting in greater production costs. This is more likely to affect nations like Ethiopia, where farming and harvesting are done primarily by hand.
Export nations were likewise pessimistic about a variety of downstream aspects. Especially when looking down the supply chain. For example, 50% of respondents said that Covid-19 would have a detrimental impact on logistics. Even on container availability, and port operations. Another 45% were concerned that their supply chain contracts will be questioned or perhaps cancelled.
One more item to consider: when we look to the future, there may be further implications. A third of survey respondents, in particular, believe the frequency of coffee leaf rust and other pests/diseases would rise. Owing to rising costs of mitigation measures such as pesticides, fertilizer, and technical support.
Climate change’s influence on the coffee industry
1. The number of conscious coffee drinkers is increasing.
We’ve seen this trend develop across markets for some time, and coffee is no exception: customers are becoming more aware of where their products originate from and what shape they take, and are changing their purchasing patterns as a result. Of course, this has consequences all the way up and down the supply chain.
Researchers stated in a 2019 report titled “New Trends in Consumption on the Coffee Market” that coffee drinkers are shifting away from “greedy consumerism” and toward simplicity, greater quality, and originality. They’re abandoning the usual coffee routes in search of authenticity. You could say that they have a more minimal approach to coffee now.
Furthermore, according to a research paper made by the United States National Coffee Association, 53% of coffee drinkers in the United States prefer to buy coffee that is beneficial for the environment, the farmers who produce the beans, and their communities. Nowadays, when people are buying coffee, they are starting to think about the planet and about ways they could minimize their harmful impact on the environment.
2. Coffee yields are decreasing, while pests are on the rise.
Scientists agree on what’s occurring with global temperatures: they’re rising, affecting climates all across the world. This may bode difficulties for coffee producers and their partners, as yields fall and pests rise.
Farmers may not be able to produce the same quantity of coffee as normal due to climatic changes (such as extremely high temperatures or less rainfall) during crucial growth seasons, according to the International Trade Center (ITC). This will result in lower crop yields.
Furthermore, warmer temperatures provide a breeding environment for pests and disease, which may be able to expand to areas where they are now unable to exist. As growers labour more to combat concerns like leaf rot and coffee berry borer, this might drive up coffee production prices even further.
3. Communities are being relocated as the weather changes.
Another consequence of rising temperatures is that the optimal height for producing coffee may shift.
Warmer temperatures, for example, might force Arabica production further up mountains and forest reserves, displacing the communities (and species) that currently live there, according to Fairtrade International.
Farmers in lower-lying areas may need to adapt and relocate or face losing their livelihoods.
The coffee industry’s consumer trends
1. Coffee that is ready to drink and grow.
Ready-to-drink coffee is one of Europe’s fastest-growing market sectors (it was the quickest in 2018), according to Hivos, with the European Centre for Promotion of Imports (CBI) and the Polish article cited earlier both indicating that the trend will continue until 2020.
RTD coffee is seen as a healthier alternative to sodas, and iced coffee’s rise as a popular beverage is helping to maintain this market’s premium position.
2. Specialty coffees are becoming increasingly rare.
According to the CBI, while most consumers continue to buy mainstream coffee blends, there is a growing demand (and willingness to pay) for high-quality coffee with cupping ratings of 80 points or above. Customers will pay for coffee with a good story relating to its environmental and social features, according to CBI. This aligns with findings on socially conscious consumers searching for a genuine experience.
However, there is no universally accepted definition of specialty coffee. Coffee brewers and other associated firms interested in tapping into this industry should focus on high-scoring beverages with strong eco-conscious origins.
3. The market for single-cup coffee making equipment is expanding.
Homebrewing is evolving, and customers are responding by purchasing new equipment. Traditional drip coffee machines are 24% less popular in the United States than they were in 2015. (NCA USA findings). Single-cup brewers, on the other hand, have increased by 50% in the same time span. People are buying coffee and equipment all over the world.
The use of coffee pods and capsules is a major factor in this transition. According to Fior Markets, the global market for these devices is predicted to nearly double by 2025, from US$15.23 billion in 2017 to US$29.2 billion. And why not? It’s simple, fast, intuitive and the consumer doesn’t have to put any work into brewing coffee. Especially in the morning when they’re still trying to wake up.
4. The coffee industry’s agri-tourism potential is growing.
Growing, selling, and brewing coffee may not be the sole future for the coffee business, as agri-tourism appears to be becoming a more feasible market for individuals in the sector, despite present Covid consequences.
This sort of coffee tourism is comparable to the wine business, which includes vineyard visits and excursions. This ties back to the premise that customers desire a genuine experience, with individuals eager to seek out coffee producers and related companies for tours, tastings, and educational opportunities.
The majority of coffee producers are affected by this trend. Tourists may be attracted by farmers in exporting nations, but viticulture has proved that producers in nearly any location may draw tourists.
5. Coffee as a recurring payment.
The coffee subscription model, in which vendors deliver coffee directly to customers’ doors, is one emerging sector. While this notion has been around for a while, the Covid-19 lockdowns brought it to the forefront as people sought to satisfy their caffeine fix while locked at home.
In 2022, coffee roasters will be able to deliver subscription coffee services and direct-to-consumer sales at scale with their access to coffee software and easy interfaces with e-commerce platforms, like ColdHotDrinks.
It’ll be interesting to watch how this tendency plays out when we transition to a post-Covid-19 world and resume some kind of normalcy. Coffee was not traditionally seen to be a difficult product to get by the majority of people. If buyers prefer buying coffee in, high-quality mixes, however, the concept of hand-picking premium brews and having them delivered to their home may retain its premium reputation and, hence, appeal.
Covid-19 and climate change have caused some coffee market experts to forecast doom and gloom for the next years. But changing consumer habits and increased interest in the product. This gives new chances for businesses all throughout the supply chain.
Those that can take advantage of new coffee technology and create alliances with crucial third parties will be able to pivot around. Withstanding whatever the global coffee market throws at them next. Good or bad. And benefit from the industry’s expected sustained expansion.